Predicting County-Level Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks From Neighborhood Patterns

The southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann, Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is the most destructive insect in southern forests. States have kept county-level records on the locations of beetle outbreaks for the past 50 yr. This study determined how accurately patterns of county-level infestations in preceding years could predict infestation occurrence in the current year and if there were emergent patterns that correlated strongly with beetle outbreaks. A variety of methods were tested as infestation predictors, including quantification of either the exact locations of infested grid cells during one or two preceding years, or the neighborhood infestation intensity (number of infested cells in a neighborhood) in these years. The methods had similar predictive abilities, but the simpler methods performed somewhat better than the more complex ones. The factors most correlated with infestations in future years were infestation in the current year and the number of surrounding counties that were infested. Infestation history helped to predict the probability of future infestations in a region, but county-level patterns alone left much of the year-to-year variability unexplained.