03156nas a2200205   4500008004100000020001400041245009500055210006900150260001000219300001200229490000700241520246000248653002702708100001502735700001802750700002502768700002202793700002302815856011202838       2007                        eng d  a1051-076100aImpact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics of Dendroctonus frontalis0 aImpact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics  cApril  a882-8990 v173 aPredicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis ( the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, predictions of minimum winter air temperatures ( a putative driver of beetle survival). A Newtonian heat transfer model with empirical cooling constants indicated that beetles within host trees are buffered from the lowest air temperatures by; [approximately]1-4[degree]C ( depending on tree diameter and duration of cold bout). The life stage structure of beetles in the most northerly outbreak in recent times ( New Jersey) were dominated by prepupae, which were more cold tolerant (by >3[degree]C) than other life stages. Analyses of beetle abundance data from 1987 to 2005 showed that minimum winter air temperature only explained 1.5% of the variance in interannual growth rates of beetle populations, indicating that it is but a weak driver of population dynamics in the southeastern United States as a whole. However, average population growth rate matched theoretical predictions of a process-based model of winter mortality from low temperatures; apparently our knowledge of population effects from winter temperatures is satisfactory, and may help to predict dynamics of northern populations, even while adding little to population predictions in southern forests. Recent episodes of D. frontalis outbreaks in northern forests may have been allowed by a warming trend from 1960 to 2004 of 3.3[degree]C in minimum winter air temperatures in the southeastern United States. Studies that combine climatic analyses, physiological experiments, and spatially replicated time series of population abundance can improve population predictions, contribute to a synthesis of population and physiological ecology, and aid in assessing the ecological consequences of climatic trends.10aDendroctonus frontalis1 aTran, Khai1 aYlioja, Tiina1 aBillings, Ronald, F.1 aRegniere, Jacques1 aAyres, Matthew, P.  uhttps://weevil.myspecies.info/impact-minimum-winter-temperatures-population-dynamics-dendroctonus-frontalis02420nas a2200205   4500008004500000020001400045245013300059210006900192260000900261300001200270490000700282520164000289653002701929100003001956700002001986700002502006700002502031700002302056856013502079       2008                        Engldsh    a0046-225X00aTemperature extremes, density dependence, and southern pine beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) population dynamics in east Texas0 aTemperature extremes density dependence and southern pine beetle  cJune  a650-6590 v373 aPrevious studies of the southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm., established that its population in east Texas responds to a delayed density-dependent process, whereas no clear role of climate has been determined. We tested two biological hypotheses for the influence of extreme temperatures on annual southern pine beetle population growth in the context of four alternative hypotheses for density-dependent population regulation. The significance of climate variables and their interaction with population regulation depended on the model of density dependence. The best model included both direct and delayed density dependence of a cubic rather than linear form. Population growth declined with the number of days exceeding 32[degree]C, temperatures previously reported to reduce brood survival. Density dependence also changed with the number of hot days. Growth was highest in years with average minimum winter temperatures. Severely cold winters may reduce Survival, whereas warm winters may reduce the efficiency of spring infestation formation. Whereas most previous studies have incorporated climate as an additive effect on growth, we found that the form of delayed density dependence changed with the number of days >32[degree]C. The interaction between temperature and regulation, a potentially common phenomenon in ecology, may explain why southern pine beetle outbreaks do not occur at perfectly regular intervals. Factors other than climate, such as forest management and direct suppression, may have contributed significantly to the timing, severity, and eventual cessation of outbreaks since the mid-1950s.10aDendroctonus frontalis1 aFriedenberg, Nicholas, A.1 aSarkar, Sudipta1 aKouchoukos, Nicholas1 aBillings, Ronald, F.1 aAyres, Matthew, P.  uhttps://weevil.myspecies.info/temperature-extremes-density-dependence-and-southern-pine-beetle-coleoptera-curculionidae-population02604nas a2200169   4500008004100000020001400041245012700055210006900182260000800251300001000259490001000269520194500279653002702224100002502251700002302276856013502299       2010                        eng d  a0363-622400aA Methodology for Assessing Annual Risk of Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks Across the Southern Region Using Pheromone Traps0 aMethodology for Assessing Annual Risk of Southern Pine Beetle Ou  cSep  a73-850 v802 13 aAn operational system to forecast infestation trends (increasing, static, declining) and relative population levels (high, moderate, low) of the southern pine beetle (SPB), Dendroctonus frontalis, has been implemented in the Southern and Eastern United States. Numbers of dispersing SPB and those of a major predator (the clerid beetle, Thanasimus dubius) are monitored with multiple-funnel traps baited with the SPB aggregation pheromone frontalin and host volatiles. One to three traps are placed in each county or national forest ranger district to be surveyed for 4 consecutive weeks during the spring, to coincide with the long-range dispersal of SPB. The average number of SPB per trap per day and the ratio of SPB to total catch of SPB and clerids in the current and previous year for the same trapping location are the variables used for predicting infestation trends and population levels for the remainder of the year. An analysis of predicted and actual SPB infestation trends and population levels for 16 States and up to 19 consecutive years (1987-2005) documents the accuracy of the annual prediction system. From 1987 to 1998, predictions at the State level, validated by subsequent infestation detection records for the specific year, proved accurate 68 percent of the time (range 42 to 83 percent) for SPB infestation trend and 69 percent of the time (range 42 to 92 percent) for population level. From 1999 to 2005, the mean accuracy of predictions of SPB infestation trend improved to 82 percent for all States combined (range 71 to 100 percent); mean predictions for population level for States increased in accuracy to 74 percent (range 43 to 100 percent). Despite system limitations, forest managers have come to depend on this early warning system to predict pending outbreaks or collapses of SPB populations. This represents the first effective and validated prediction system for outbreaks of a bark beetle species.10aDendroctonus frontalis1 aBillings, Ronald, F.1 aUpton, William, W.  uhttps://weevil.myspecies.info/methodology-assessing-annual-risk-southern-pine-beetle-outbreaks-across-southern-region-using-pherom